|aAIDS epidemiology :|ba quantitative approach /|cby Ron Brookmeyer, Mitchell H. Gail.
|aNew York :|bOxford University Press,|c1994.
|axv, 354 p. :|bill. ;|c25 cm.
|aMonographs in epidemiology and biostatistics ;|vv. 22
|aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 317-342) and index.
|aRisk factors for infection and the probability of HIV transmission -- Surveys to determine seroprevalence and seroincidence -- Incubation period distribution -- Cofactors and markers -- Screening and accuracy of tests for HIV -- Statistical issues in surveillance of AIDS incidence -- Back-calculation -- Epidemic transmission models -- Synthesizing data sources and methods for assessing the scope of the epidemic -- Developing and evaluating new therapies and vaccines.
|aThe AIDS epidemic has spread worldwide, and nearly 300,000 cases have been reported in the United States alone. Statisticians and epidemiologists are called upon to design and correctly interpret studies on the prevention and control of disease caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and to estimate the magnitude and future course of the epidemic.
|aIn addition to a comprehensive discussion of methods for gauging the extent of the epidemic and forecasting AIDS incidence, this book presents methods and results concerning the risks of HIV transmission, the incubation period of HIV infection, markers of disease progression, prevention strategies, including strategies to protect the blood supply, and the evaluation of treatments and vaccines. These topics are presented quantitatively, with an emphasis on the strengths and weaknesses of available data. The book highlights how a naive statistical approach to the design or analysis of such studies can lead to seriously misleading results. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting HIV disease and AIDS incidence are given thorough treatment.
|aThese methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretations of survey data on HIV prevalence and incidence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of the material in this book - such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply. an evaluation of survey approaches and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence - has not been previously published.
AIDS has appeared in more than 130 countries, and over 100,000 cases of AIDS have been reported in the U.S. alone. More and more, the public will be depending on statisticians to provide answers about the future course of this epidemic. This comprehensive work confronts the problems that are unique to AIDS research and unites them under a single conceptual framework. It focuses on methods for the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies, the natural history of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, methods for tracking and projecting the course of the epidemic, and statistical issues in therapeutic trials. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting this disease receive comprehensive treatment. These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretation of survey data on HIV prevalence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of this material -- such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply, an evaluation of survey approaches, and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence -- is not available in any other work.